- Political polls have been under increased scrutiny following Donald Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
- The polls in 2020 have largely been consistent, with Democratic nominee Joe Biden maintaining a steady lead over President Trump.
- But battleground state polling is a little more tricky, and shifts in certain states dictate campaign strategy when it comes to the Electoral College.
- Heading into this week, polls have tightened slightly in Pennsylvania, one of the most crucial states for both Trump and Biden.
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Trying to keep up with the polls in the 2020 election can be a headache.
The 2016 election brought a lot of scrutiny on polling and raised skepticism among both the public and politicians because of Donald Trump’s surprise victory over Hillary Clinton.
Most of that came down to a mix of a lack of polling in certain states and significant errors in others, such as Michigan.
So far in 2020, the polls mostly held up through primary season, and they’ve shown a lot of stasis between President Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden despite an otherwise tumultuous year.
With more than 66 million Americans already done with voting so far, shifts in polling can only move the needle so far.
However, a number of battleground states are still up for grabs, and in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, some tightening in the race will catch the attention of both campaigns.
Here's a rundown of where the polls stand a week out from the election:
- Biden still has a healthy lead over Trump nationally, ahead by around 9 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Biden up 9.2 points.
- In Pennsylvania —which could very well be the tipping point state that decides who hits the required 270 electoral votes to win the election — polling has tightened to put Biden about 5 percentage points ahead of Trump. FiveThirtyEight's average has him up 5.3 points, while the RealClear Politics average has him up 3.8 points (RCP's average includes a number of more Republican-leaning polls that tend to drag Biden down a bit).
- Biden does not necessarily need Pennsylvania to win, but it remains one of the most important states for his campaign, and 2016's 4.4% polling error there would make it more of a tossup than his current lead would indicate.
- In Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden is doing much better. He's up 7 points in Wisconsin and 8 points in Michigan, and as FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver points out, Biden would still win both of them even if there is as big of a polling error as there was in 2016.
- Florida remains dicey, with Biden up 2.4 percentage points in a state that has been tight since March.
- North Carolina is also tight, as Biden hangs on to another 2.4 point lead in a state that Trump needs to win in just about any path to 270 electoral votes.
Read more:
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- Tom Cotton is already laying the groundwork in New Hampshire for a 2024 presidential run
- The Fox News Decision Desk director explains how races will be called on election night
